Thursday, November 10, 2016

4 Years...

Trump & the GOP will control all 3 branches of the US government for the next 4 years (Dems aren’t picking up the Senate or House in 2018).  GOP lawmakers will do whatever he says, he’s too popular right now that his threat to go after them will have them towing the line.  Things will change




Here are my Trumped Up Predictions: 

Extremely Likely: 
* Tax Reform – Taxes on the rich and businesses drop, taxes on lower middle class w/families stay flat (they don’t rise as his tax plan actually layed out)
* Deficit – Greater than $1bn in at least 1 year during this first term. But that’s ok, Obama’s been trying to deficit spend for years.  Economy needs the stimulus.
* Climate – COMPLETELY FUCKED – Paris accord is gone – Head of EPA is a climate change denier.
* Drill baby drill – He will make it very easy for private companies to extract resources from public/federal land.  Pipelines, etc.
* TPP – Not going to happen (But who really cares about IP rights for US corporations overseas) It was never really that big of a deal at all and probably a net neutral event. And it wasn't even with CHINA, Lol
* Supreme Court – Flips back to Conservative from 4-4, could get worse w/some old liberals on the bench. My guess is Roberts gets a little more liberal.
* Immigration:  No doubt legal and illegal immigration will slow / Refugees from “terror prone” areas are not coming
* 1st Amendment: Very likely Trump goes after reporters or blacklist reporters who critique him. He has the power of the FBI, CIA, NSA, IRS, FTC, FCC… he can do damage.  Think Bezos who owns Amazon and the Washington Post.  Would the FBI or lawmakers stop him?  Doubtful.
* Treasuries - Already reflecting the above deficit expectations, with the biggest drop in 30+ years yesterday.

Somewhat Likely: 
* Obamacare – Gone, or stripped.  I’m not 100% convinced that the GOP is willing to throw 20mm people off their insurance (most users actually like their plans).  I wouldn’t be surprised if it was replaced w/something that looks very very similar to Obamacare.  My guess, no mandate but must cover preexisting conditions.  Perhaps there will be subsidies for the insurance companies to take the preexisting vs subsidies to the poor to fulfill the mandate. This is literally a shot on the dark guess for me.
* Infrastructure Spending – Unclear of GOP will support this w/o it the costs being offset somewhere else.  Not sure Dems will support it if the costs are somewhere else.
* Ukraine / Baltics – They will become part of Russia again.
* Mexico Wall – We will pay for it (though perhaps from taxes on Western Union to Mexico) – It won’t be 50 ft tall or across the entire border, but something will start being built so Trump can say he did
* Immigration – Increased or targeted deportations.  Targeted is exactly what Obama wanted to do that was rejected by the courts, but guess who will control the courts.
* Abortion - No doubt there will be new restrictions, perhaps on a national level. Outlawing isn’t likely.
* Equality - While he will likely nominate SC justices who are against equality, that ship has sailed. However, “Religious freedom” laws seem somewhat likely, allowing vendors to discriminate due to their religion.  We will see what the SC says about them.
* Welfare/Food Stamps/Unemployment Insurance: Due to the deficit explosion, something will have to be cut, these will be the first to go.
* Appoints a special prosecutor to cross the T's and dot the I's on Clinton, she doesn't go to jail. (Obama could pardon her beforehand to just end the charade).

Somewhat Unlikely: 
* NATO – Not going anywhere, though it may be seen as weaker
* NAFTA – Not going anywhere, would just kill our economy (never actually lost jobs b/c of it, just politics, not economics)
* CHINA – Not renegotiating old trade deals – (Though he may label them a currency manipulator, which they are, just like Switzerland)
* Comprehensive Immigration Reform – There’s a shot, anything’s possible.  Could have path to citizenship w/many many caveats.
* Mass Deportations – We’re already deporting 400,000 people a year and net illegal immigration is flat to negative, no need to create a immigration police force. New immigrants are going to stop coming.
* End Offshoring – He wants tariffs on companies that move jobs overseas. Not gonna happen. GOP isn’t raising taxes, and doing something “anti-business” in the process.
* Social Security / Medicare - Not likely to do anything to fix / improve the health of these programs. Maybe there will be some means testing, but they aren't raising taxes or cutting benefits.

NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN: 
* Term limits for congress – We already have them, they’re called elections. And Congress isn’t going to vote themselves out.

Trump:
* Convicted of fraud (Trump University) but not impeached b/c GOP controls congress.
* Not convicted of child rape (Trial next month)
* Nothing changes



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